Will Pakistan-Saudi-Turkiye alliance actually create a new regional order? 

It was a historic announcement. On Friday, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact, building on a similar agreement between Riyadh and Islamabad last year.

But the Mecca Joint Defence Pact, as the agreement is known, has raised questions about the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East region.

Experts have speculated that the deal may mark the beginning of a wider regional alliance that sits between Israel and Iran, wary of both.

While the signatories seek to project a message of strength and unity in the face of regional threats, they have also been cautious about framing the pact as a deterrent.

Analysts note that the three countries have been cautious not to antagonise regional adversaries. It remains unclear the extent to which the pact would force its members to defend their alliance partners.

“We haven’t seen the Mecca declaration yet. We believe it says an attack on one should be considered an attack on all — and ‘should be’ is the operative phrase because that does not mean ‘necessarily’,” Harlan Ullman, the chairman of the Killowen Group advisory firm, told Al Jazeera.

The threats are not distant. Pakistan has been engaged in a border conflict with Afghanistan since February, and it exchanged fire for several days with fellow nuclear power India in May 2025.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has repeatedly come under attack from Iran and its allies since the outbreak of the United States-Israeli war against Iran in late February.

And Turkiye has fought Kurdish armed groups both inside and outside of the country for years. Tensions with Israel have also increased.

Experts like Ullman say it is as yet unclear how the Mecca Joint Defence Pact might pull its three signatories into any of those conflicts.

“Supposing the Houthis in Yemen attack Saudi Arabia, does that bring in Turkiye? Does that bring in Pakistan? That remains to be seen,” Ullman said.

Shifting regional dynamics

The Middle East has experienced significant upheaval in recent years, most notably since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Decades of threats between Iran and Israel have also culminated in a regional war that has yet to end.

Countries across the Middle East and further afield are now trying to figure out how to deal with the chaos and prepare for the next phase.

Many of the states appear to be putting past differences behind them and deciding that pragmatism is the best path forward in the face of mutual threats.

Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are good examples. The 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his country’s Istanbul consulate led to a deep rift between the two countries that lasted for years.

But by 2022, Riyadh and Ankara were seen to put aside their past differences, with the former pursuing a region-wide deescalation strategy, and the latter looking to strengthen its economy.

In the time since, Israel and Iran have exerted pressure on the Middle East, pursuing different visions for the region.

That pressure, however, is understood to have helped to push countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye together.

Establishing deterrence

The Mecca Joint Defence Pact aims to serve as deterrence to any threat the three countries may face.

As Al Jazeera correspondent Osamah Bin Javaid pointed out, each side brings a different strength to the table.

“Each of these countries brings unique capabilities: Pakistan’s battle-hardened military, its munitions and nuclear arsenal, the only one in a Muslim-majority nation,” Bin Javaid said.

“Turkiye, a vital NATO member, brings world-class drone technology and sophisticated defence manufacturing. And Saudi Arabia provides the financial muscle to back it all up.”

The need for new military alliances — and new forms of deterrence against threats — has been amplified amid questions about the US and its reliability. Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye to a lesser extent, have long considered the US a key security partner.

But as foreign policy in the US grows increasingly erratic under President Donald Trump, countries across the world are calling for alternatives.

Experts also point out that Israel appears to be the US’s top foreign-policy priority in the Middle East, leading to concerns about its willingness to defend other allies.

“The Trump administration has said that allies have got to fend for themselves,” Ullman said. “ It’s clear to me that our allies are looking elsewhere.”

While Israel and Iran have shown themselves to be regional threats, the signatories to the Mecca Joint Defence Pact have been careful not to frame the alliance as aimed at any external force.

But experts say the dangers posed by Israel and Iran are clear.

“For all three states, Israel remains the biggest threat to regional security and stability,” Bin Javaid said.

“Iran closely follows within that threat matrix, especially for Saudi Arabia after Tehran’s attacks on Washington’s interests.”

For many in the region, Israel, which once pushed for the normalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia, has demonstrated post-2023 that it is more interested in settling differences using military power than negotiations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also begun to speak of the dangers of an emerging “Sunni axis”  — though he has not defined what that might be.

Experts, however, argue his remarks could end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy that brings Sunni-majority powers together. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye all have Sunni majorities.

Iran, meanwhile, has already attacked Saudi Arabia, as have other Iranian-backed groups. Saudi Arabia, for its part, has responded with strikes on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq.

New members?

It remains unclear whether the Mecca Joint Defence Pact may still expand to include other states, such as Egypt, Qatar, Syria and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The benefits of such an alliance are understandable: The Middle East’s Sunni-majority countries have often been divided, with observers arguing this is the reason for their inability to deal with dangers from Israel and Iran.

But past divisions, as well as differing interests, make the expansion of the alliance a less-than-foregone conclusion.

Syria, for instance, is focused on post-war reconstruction after a brutal 13-year conflict. Its position on Israel’s northern border could make it hesitant to enter into a pact that might be perceived negatively by that country.

Egypt, likewise, has signalled its focus is on the economy and avoiding domestic upheaval.

In the past, it has hesitated to join a Saudi-led maritime alliance to protect shipping routes in the region, for fear of being dragged into a regional conflict.

The UAE could be another potential member of the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkiye alliance, but its positions have repeatedly diverged from those countries in recent years, most notably over issues like Yemen and its normalisation of ties with Israel.

The result of that normalisation, the US-backed Abraham Accords, presents another regional grouping, more aligned with Israel, that could be seen as a rival to the Mecca alliance nations.

The complicated nature of Middle East relations highlights the problems inherent in any narrative about the emergence of a new regional order following Friday’s pact.

Alliances shift in the region, going back decades. They may yet shift again.

The true assessment of this alliance will be when it is truly tested. Israel and Iran have shown they are willing to go to war and deal with the consequences. Are Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan willing to do that for each other?

In today’s Middle East, a scenario could emerge that may force them to make such a decision — and those decisions will ultimately make clear whether a third regional axis is really emerging.